Stephen Harper is in a lot of trouble.
He refuses to deny that "financial considerations" were offered to Independent MP Chuck Cadman on the eve of a crucial 2005 budget vote, when the then-Opposition Tories were trying to bring down Prime Minister Paul Martin's flimsy minority government.
The problem for Harper is that the admission is on tape, available through numerous sources on the Internet, for any interested Canadian to hear. And as smoking guns go, this one's fogging up the future prospects for the Prime Minister pretty effectively. For a man who won the 2006 election with the promise to clean up government, it looks like he came to office with mighty large wad of gum stuck to his shoe.
If the charge is true -- that he was aware representatives of his party were going to Cadman's house to offer him a financial consideration of any kind, in exchange for voting with the opposition parties to bring down the government -- it truly does not matter what kind of inducement it was. Harper's heretofore solid reputation on ethics is forever shattered.
If the RCMP determines that the Conservative Party operatives involved in the meeting with Cadman were in breach of the Criminal Code, Harper's position becomes even more untenable. The moment ANY charges get laid in this case is the beginning of the end of the Harper government. Holding knowledge of actions that were criminal before they were undertaken, doing nothing to stop them from doing so, and knowing these particular actions (which, if proven, constitute bribery and/or corruption) were on behalf of a political party he led, leave him no other choice.
The Prime Minister will be forced to resign, and Canadians will pass judgement on the Tories for the whole sorry business.
After having perfectly plotted his path to a majority government, and having executed most of the steps as well as can be expected, Harper must be furious that this is all coming out right on the eve of his greatest political achievement.
Threatening the Opposition Liberals with libel lawsuits not only makes the Prime Minister look petty and unable to defend his own words in the proper venue, Question Period, it also prolongs the story. If the Liberals are wise, they will continue to keep the lawsuit threat at the top of the news. Every day that Harper's misstep stays topical, the more damage will be inflicted on his government. If he thought that hurling out that particular bully tactic would work against Stephane Dion, he must not have been paying attention to the man's political career.
Say what you will about Dion's record, the one thing that comes through consistently is -- don't underestimate him. It may prove your downfall.
The road behind Dion is littered with people who doubted him and were run over by his successes. Perhaps we will have to add Stephen Harper to the list. Time will tell.
But one thing is certain -- Canadian politics just got a helluva lot more interesting.
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