Hillary Rodham Clinton won the Rhode Island and Ohio Democratic primaries last night, while losing Vermont and splitting the decision in Texas with Barack Obama.
But my early read of the political punditry reveals a sentiment I still can't understand -- that Barack Obama, because he is losing votes in big states like California and New York, will have trouble carrying those states for the Democrats in November's general election against Republican nominee John McCain (who clinched his party's nod by sweeping the states on offer last night).
In no way can such an attitude be assumed. California and New York are two of the most liberal states in the Union, and they will vote for a Democratic nominee named Blue Plastic Bucket if that's what the party wanted them to do. Obama will be just fine there in November. He had trouble in some of the larger states in Super Tuesday voting last month largely because of some built-in advantages Clinton had. In general voting, the party should carry those states whether it's Obama or Clinton carrying the banner.
In Texas, where Clinton will likely win the popular vote by a very narrow margin, the Republicans have recently held sway. When the general election comes around, it will be difficult for Democrats to win the state, no matter which candidate is the standard-bearer. However, Democrats have been coming on in that state in recent years and have a legitimate shot at overcoming Republican dominance there. Obama's strategy of bringing in new, younger voters for the Democrats, coupled with the very real possibility that Hispanic voters will break for the Democrats overall in November, make that a winnable state for Obama should he be the nominee.
The bigger issue of this campaign is -- when will Clinton stop drinking the crazy Kool-Aid she's obviously got stashed on her campaign plane? Hard reality says it's all over but the confetti. In strictly mathematical terms, she cannot win the pledged delegate count. To catch up she would have to win each and every state still on the primary calendar by large margins, a highly unlikely scenario. Even her win in Texas is empty; she will almost certainly have fewer TX delegates than Obama, so what does she truly gain from it in the final analysis? The only way she wins at the August Democratic convention in Denver is if she convinces superdelegates to overwhelmingly support her, a scenario that John Ibbitson in the Globe and Mail quite rightly says is unlikely to happen. Once the Wyoming caucus this weekend and the Mississippi primary next Tuesday provide likely victories for Obama (making it 14 wins in 17 contests since Super Tuesday), the clock starts ticking.
Because for all the joy in Clintonville this morning, Hillary has already struck out.
By next Tuesday it will be clear that Obama's pledged delegate lead is as strong or stronger than it was on March 3. There simply are not enough states for her to catch up before the convention. It won't be long before the superdelegates start rallying around Obama.
The Democrats have a brilliant chance this year to win the White House back from the Republicans. But only if they are united, and if they focus their fire on McCain instead of each other. Clinton is in the way. Look for the Democratic party bigwigs to make their final choice before Pennsylvania, the next big primary, on April 22. For no matter their personal feelings, it's clear the people have spoken, and their preferred choice overall is Barack Obama.
Despite last night's results, the fat lady is warming up in the wings.
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