In and Out ... of Office?

I swear to every thinking person who reads this blog -- the "in and out" scheme the federal Tories used for its national advertising during the 2006 election campaign is going to be the undoing of the Harper government.

They are pretending not to take the risk very seriously in public specifically because the issue is potentially fatal to their cause. The recent appellate court defeat on their civil suit takes away their crowing point about the courts being on their side.  And the charges laid against four party members (including two sitting Senators) puts a lie to this being an insignificant "administrative dispute."

Now, let me be clear -- as other bloggers and writers have already posted on the internet, this issue is not always the simplest to explain to people, is it the kind of thing cynical voters would not be shocked to hear about, given that it's politicians involved in this scandal, and it is likely to be forgotten in the heat of an election campaign. It's not likely this issue in isolation will bring down the government.

The reason this one will sting is because it's a definitive straw on the pile already perched on Canadians' collective camel-like back.

This is a party that campaigned in 2006 on being the party of accountability and transparency. How can they ever make that claim again if Elections Canada proves its charges in court? I mean, these charges stem from how they conducted themselves in the campaign that originally brought them to power. That would be the same election campaign when the Tories were beating the Liberals over the head with their copy of the Gomery inquiry report on the sponsorship scandal. They were going to change the culture of government, they said, and make sure this kind of thing could never happen again.

All while acting illegally in their own campaign advertising campaign. The hypocrisy and irony run thick and rich.

The Tories have collected a small stack of ethics-defying mini brouhahas over the course the past five years. They have created an almost militaristic environment for government MPs and Senators who are expected to toe the line or find another place of employment. The Prime Minister's Office could have taught Trudeau, Mulroney and Chrétien a thing or two about how to be top dog -- the centralized control of the government by the current PMO is unparalleled in Canadian history.  

The scandalous Afghan detainee imbroglio that led to a prorogation of Parliament feeds into the party's reputation as serial skirters of ultimate political responsibility. The earlier prorogation during the Coalition Crisis was another example of Harper's obsessive need for control and his party's willingness to do whatever is necessary to retain power, no matter the cost to our sense of fairness and our faith in democratic principles. The uproar over Bev Oda's handling of CIDA's Kairos funding decision is another instance where Tory pre-government rhetoric and the five-years-of-Tory-government reality don't line up. The examples of Conservative misconduct, arrogance and outright disdain for Parliament and other key institutions are numerous.

Add it all up, and it becomes obvious that taking a strong line of attack by lining all these examples up could be a powerful argument for opposition to Harper's government to make in any upcoming election campaign.

Will it happen? Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition will have its moment sometime relatively soon. But given the current plight of the Liberal party, it's tough to see them pulling it together enough to do the necessary damage. A physically weakened Jack Layton may not be the best messenger on the hustings if the electoral writ is dropped this year. And Gilles Duceppe will do what he always does -- win a majority of Quebec seats while having a minimal impact on the cross-Canada debate.

But if the Liberals and NDP can sharpen their knives just enough to inflict enough damage from both sides, it might be enough to deny a renewed mandate for the Tories. Sadly, the knives in opposition will be used mostly to try and take out each other for short-term advantage amongst the votes they already collectively command.

I wish I was optimistic that they can remove Harper from government. I'm not. But this agglomeration of greasy, sticky, grimy, slimy dealings from the Tories means any renewed mandate they earn in the future will be weighed down by the malfeasance clogging their engine of government. Moving ahead with a believable air of confidence and integrity will be extremely difficult to muster.

So will the in and out scandal undo Harper? Yes, sooner or later. But maybe not in 2011.