Wednesday, April 20, 2011

David Johnston is a Smart Guy

I read Blake Batson's blog post about the choice facing Canadians voters on May 2: according to him, we must choose between a Harper majority or a coalition government. Hogwash. I encourage Mr. Batson to read my post from yesterday to figure out why the Liberals and NDP may in the end choose to permit the Tories to govern.

But in the event the government did fall shortly after introducing its Throne Speech or budget, the Official Opposition (probably the Liberals) would clearly have the right to seek the confidence of the House to govern the country, if invited to try by the Governor General.

Note I said if invited to try by the Governor General. Harper, bless his soul, chose David Johnston to replace Michaelle Jean in the vice-regal post so he could deal with just such a scenario. A constitutional expert, our head of state knows full well that it's Parliament who determines who becomes Prime Minister, and not the electorate. So does Harper. If Johnston says, "yo, Iggy, you wanna give this thing a shot?" why should the Liberals say no? And Jack Layton is right to observe that if a Tory minority government fell quickly “we shouldn't immediately go back to an election; that would be ridiculous.” The Governor General knows that too.

But under no circumstance I can see would the Liberals find it advantageous to invite the NDP into a coalition government. Why validate a party that's a major thorn in your side, currently bleeding some of your support in Quebec, making your life a living hell on the prairies and complicating things in B.C. (if mid-campaign polls are to be believed)? If any of these trends hold up on Election Day, why give the NDP a taste of power now, at the moment the Liberals will most need to bury them? It makes no strategic sense.

Canadians are smart. They can smell the manure pile Harper's shovelling from a long way off. As Douglas Bell wrote in the Globe and Mail this morning, the coalition dog won't hunt.

We have three choices -- believe Harper's ridiculousness, vote our consciences, or try to play the strategic voting game. Good luck with that, Canada. But Jack won't be in Cabinet by July. Ain't gonna happen.

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