The Mercer Effect

"If you look at these numbers, that would represent potentially a pretty interesting shift in the balance of power, certainly on the opposition benches. That balance of power is kind of in the hands of the youth vote right now."
- Jaideep Mukerji, vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion, commenting yesterday on April 26 polling results

Rick Mercer's now-famous rant challenging young people aged 18 to 24 to vote has had a shocking effect on this campaign. To the surprise of many, youth have mobilized through creating new groups focused on getting out the youth vote, utilizing social media and other means to push their message, and through the vote mob phenomenon sweeping across Canada's university campuses. Despite condescending criticism from "wise elders" who dismiss it all as just so much noise, the focused sharpness of the retorts to such talk, plus the massive shifts in recent polls, indicate Canada's youth are finally seeking to be heard en masse through increased political engagement.

We must wait until the votes are counted to see how many youth actually turn out to cast ballots, but the early indications are that the Conservatives should be concerned. Last year, fewer than 1 in 5 youth expressed support for Harper, and there's little reason to believe that's changed very much. So any significant increase in youth voter turnout is not going to fall into their column. However, it's tough to say how that will influence vote splits in competitive ridings given how unpredictable the campaign has become in last week.

One thing is certain, though -- something is afoot in the electorate, and unpredictable things will almost assuredly happen. Will Jack Layton become Leader of the Opposition? Will Stephen Harper succeed in winning a majority with a reduced percentage of the national vote from 2008? Will Michael Ignatieff still be the Liberal leader by Canada Day? Will Gilles Duceppe still be the Bloc leader by Victoria Day? And just how many young people will vote next Monday anyway?

Right now, as Mukerji posited yesterday, a sizeable factor in how the vote turns out is in the hands of Canada's youth. If they seize it, our politics will be forever altered.

Source:
http://anomalism.deviantart.com/gallery/#/d1ps0d

“It’s conventional wisdom of all political parties that young people will not vote. And the parties, they like it that way … so please, if you are between 18 and 25 and you want to scare the heck out of the people who run this country, this time around, do the unexpected. Take twenty minutes out of your day and do what young people all over the world are dying to do: vote.”
- Rick Mercer