The NDP: Aftermath and The Way Forward

I have been thinking of writing a blog post about the passing of Jack Layton for some time now. There were many things I wanted to say about him, but I felt they were being said far more eloquently than I ever could in the actions and the genuine outpouring of grief by everyday Canadians of all political persuasions from coast to coast. From the chalk covering Nathan Phillips Square in Toronto, to the vigils held spontaneously across the nation, to the letters, notes and online expressions of grief, this was a rare unifying moment in our history when our politics were consumed whole by our collective humanity.

This moment was most searing for the followers and members of the New Democratic Party. The loss of a leader so tragically and so soon after his (and his party's) greatest triumph has been a body blow to the NDP. In the aftermath, people have started to move ahead and plan for the next steps in the journey. Next Friday, the national executive will establish the rules of engagement for a leadership contest that will choose someone to replace Layton at the helm. Shortly thereafter, the people currently considering a run at the leadership will weigh the rules, their personal desires, their potential support and fundraising bases, and their potential competition and then decide whether or not to throw their hats into the ring.

And then the NDP will pursue that great task of selecting the man or woman who will take up Layton's work and push the party towards the next federal election in October 2015, all the while working to establish the NDP's newfound second-place status as a stepping stone upward and not as a fluke followed by a crash back to earth. 

NDP MP Thomas Mulcair

In his final message, Layton hoped this race would begin quickly and run about as long as the 2003 contest (which selected him as leader). It's been widely reported that the length of the last contest was roughly seven and a half months. So why are people in the party and in the media tied to this bizarre idea that the race will be concluded by January? This idea has become so prevalent that Thomas Mulcair has already made his first big mistake in this race, claiming he won't run if the leadership convention is held too early. 

Rebecca Blaikie has been tasked by the party's executive to lead the crafting of the rules of engagement. There's simply no way she's going to suggest the party dispense with Layton's final suggestions. So let's do the math: it's September. A leadership race with a timeline of seven to eight months would place a convention in March or April 2012. That's plenty of time to build a campaign, go across the country and meet people, sign up people all over the place (especially in Quebec), strengthen local associations, conduct debates and consultations, and otherwise conduct the business of a party looking for a new leader. 

Hey, NDP supporters -- chill out. Everything will be fine, and there won't be a convention in January.

I personally feel excitement about the process of choosing a new leader. The invigoration of the party at the local level can only bode well for the continued success of the NDP as a political force, and make it harder for the Liberals to try and come back and reclaim second-party status. The NDP will also be out in front of the other parties in the House of Commons that currently lack permanent leaders, and will give that individual maximum time to grow into the role. Jack Layton did not arrive fully formed as the formidable leader he had become by 2011 -- it took years of hard work and dedication for him to get there. The new leader will need similar time, and the stability of a Conservative majority until 2015 actually works in his/her favour in that regard.

This timeframe also permits the party to work towards building a stronger funding base in preparation for the battle ahead with the Conservatives, who are currently biding their time and waiting for things to shake out before unloading their heavy artillery on the new leader. They will try Ignatieff tactics again -- spend lots of money trying to define the new person before they get a chance to define themselves. New Democrats will have to be ready for the onslaught, and the need to build a war chest in the coming months has never been clearer.

I have ideas and perspectives on how this race may come to pass. Until candidates start to declare their official entry into the race I will hold my own counsel. But look for more posts on this topic in the weeks and months to come.