Why Micheal Ignatieff Should Cheer for Tim Hudak

The Ontario government led by Dalton McGuinty is in trouble.

According to recent polling, the Liberals have fallen into a double-digit hole in voting intentions behind the PC opposition, and 7 out of 10 Ontarians think the government is on the wrong track. A series of missteps and the enduring unpopularity of the HST are behind the doom and gloom for the governing party.

Federal Liberals, take heart. The tide is turning in your favour.

Historically, the inhabitants of Queen's Park and Parliament Hill tend to be of differing political stripes. When the Tories were dominating provincial politics during the Davis years, Pierre Trudeau's Liberals was holding down the federal fort. When Frank Miller tripped on his own feet and lost Tory hegemony in Toronto to David Peterson, Brian Mulroney was running things in Ottawa. After Jean Chretien won power and Tories everywhere were in the doldrums, Ontarians took a chance on Bob Rae's NDP. And when Ontario soured after five years on its traditional third party, they yanked hard right with Mike Harris.

Now with the Harper Tories in federal power at the same time as the provincial McGuinty Liberals, Ontario is poised for another traditional shifting of political loyalty. Ontario holds its election in a year from now, and all current trends point to the PC's under Tim Hudak taking over at that time. I personally don't see how the Liberals avoid their fate -- no matter if their decisions turn out to be sage or folly, I believe the public has formed its enduring impression and will toss the bums out next fall.

Only the good Lord knows when the next federal election will finally happen, but I'd wager Harper would prefer to have it after the October 2011 Ontario vote. The irritants with the federal government are accumulating, though at this point it hasn't coalesced into a serious problem for them. At least not yet. 

But I think a time of accounting is coming for the Conservative Party of Canada. The Liberals seem to have finally comprehended that opposition status requires opposition action, and recent noise around the long-form census and the long-gun registry has exposed the government's wedge-sharpening, deaf-to-reason approach to their detriment. People are starting to look harder at their options, and as this continues I believe the Tories will begin to slowly bleed support to the other parties.

But ultimately, as history shows, a change in government at one level is usually followed quickly by a change at the other shortly thereafter. Ignatieff might want to send Hudak some clandestine encouragement, a Christmas card and well wishes this December.