The scene: A Stephen Harper led minority government many didn't elect and don't want to support remains in power largely on the strength of voters on the Prairies (who are statistically over-represented in Parliament), concentrated pockets of support around Vancouver, Quebec City and southern Ontario, and smatterings of seats in the Atlantic. The challengers, limited to traditional support bases in various urban centres across the country (Liberals and NDP) and suburban and rural Quebec (the Bloc) could not rally enough supporters and/or credibility to topple an increasingly arrogant and imperious Prime Minister.
The actors: When the writs were dropped, Gilles Duceppe led the Bloc into one more election (perhaps one too many?) in a province where the Liberals can't gain any traction due to past scandals, the Tories are limited by a left-leaning electorate and the NDP have typically been a non-factor. Most voters in the rest of the country expected more of the same -- an election about nothing, one that would lead to a similar Parliament to the one that was just dissolved.
But something funny happened on the way to history repeating itself. Humans intervened.
I had been saying to friends before the campaign started that this one felt different. I believed something was going to change this time around. I didn't think it would be a massive late-campaign surge in NDP support, though. I was just as blindsided by that as anyone. But when you stop and think about it, it makes a lot of sense.
Irrespective of your own politics, try to think like a Quebecker for a moment:
The Harper government, by and large, doesn't represent you, or what you believe in. Quebec is filled with people who lean further left than most other Canadians, and have a stronger belief in the welfare state. The Prime Minister just isn't your kind of people, and you're baffled at how he manages to garner the levels of support he does in the rest of Canada. You'd love to see the Conservatives get tossed out, but your countrymen and women elsewhere in the country simply aren't getting it, in your view.
The Bloc Quebecois just celebrated 20 years of existence. Besides some small policy victories with minority governments under Paul Martin and then Harper, what the hell have they done, really? Out of desperation, they're now chirping about this election being a contrast between sovereigntists and federalists, and want you to believe a vote for them is the best way to represent Quebec federally. But the Bloc will never govern -- not as the lead party in government nor as a junior partner in a minority or coalition situation either. You feel the Prime Minister on one point -- the province needs a voice in government. But you know that voice will never be Duceppe's. Plus, you want to turn the referendum page and get on with your life. The constitutional debate is soooo 1995.
After the Gomery inquiry into the sponsorship scandal, the Liberal brand is mud in your province. Michael Ignatieff is clearly not one of your own, and has done little to change your opinion of the Liberal Party. He hasn't been effective at promoting his platform, articulating a new vision for the country or at eviscerating the competition. Nothing he's done leads you to believe he's a strong leader, and his party acts as if they are entitled to a renewed shot at government. Maybe they need to sit it out one last time before they fully comprehend the message their 2006 defeat should have taught them.
That leaves the NDP. Their leader, Jack Layton, was born and raised in your province and sounds like you (at least the anglo you). His politics line up with yours better than any other party not named the Bloc. He's been working at getting around, getting to know your issues, and he's done a decent job at it. He's easily the most personable and positive of the federal leaders, plus he has an everyman charm you find endearing. He speaks your language, both literally and figuratively. In short, he's a leader you dig. Why not give him a chance?
Hence, having successfully made the case that Quebeckers do have a choice, the NDP's support in the province has skyrocketed. So much so, there's the real possibility they can win some seats in the province, and potentially elsewhere as well. If current trends hold, I figure the NDP should come out of the election with at least 10 Quebec seats, and more if Quebeckers cotton onto the idea of shifting their votes to a party recent polls suggest could be the Official Opposition with their support.
It puts the lie to Duceppe's claim that Quebec's voice can be best expressed by the Bloc, a party that has no chance of being the Official Opposition after May 2. It also has one other potential unintended consequence that, once people in the province think it over, might appeal to them:
Vote NDP in massive numbers, and Quebec might be the dominant province in an NDP-led government.
That's right. I said it.
If Quebeckers can read pollsters' seat projections (and they can), they may come to realize the Tories cannot govern if the NDP and Liberal caucuses combined form a majority in the House of Commons. Under the seat distribution scenario laid out by yesterday's EKOS survey, Harper's government could fall on its Throne Speech (or on its budget shortly thereafter), and the Governor General would most likely ask Layton to form a government. The Liberals, preoccupied with agonizing over whether or not to dump Ignatieff as their leader, would be in no position to object. The Bloc, reduced to parliamentary irrelevance, would be thrown into existential crisis. The NDP would then be handed its historic moment -- to govern the country in a minority situation, most likely propped up by the Liberals.
There's even the possibility of a formal agreement between the NDP and the Liberals, similar to the accord reached between the two parties at the provincial level in Ontario between 1987 and 1990.
Can the NDP hold onto its unprecedented status at this late stage in the electoral game? We shall have to watch over the next six days to find out. But one thing is certain -- if NDP is able to muscle the Bloc into a severely weakened state and become the largest federal party in Quebec, and then form the Official Opposition or a minority government in Ottawa, the national political dynamic will be forever changed.
All those people who mocked Layton earlier in the campaign for refusing to drop talk about becoming Prime Minister have been given their comeuppance. What once seemed unimaginable is now inching closer to the NDP Leader's grasp.
Hang on, Canada. This is getting really interesting.
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