Well, so much for that theory. Since Harper made two crucial decisions in the opening week, the Liberals have already started to pick up some ground. The first was the Harper-initiated call for a head-to-head debate with Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. Perhaps Harper hasn't been paying attention, but Iggy's been feeling sprightly and feisty so far. He picked up the insinuation right away and goaded Harper, daring him to actually agree to the fight. Harper bailed out faster than the US government sank cash into its financial sector. The misstep made the Prime Minister look silly, and emboldened the Liberals. Score one for the Grits.
The other decision deals with Newfoundland, which I'll deal with in a moment. But there is a third factor that has now come into play, and this is Harper's insistence on talking up the "dangerous coalition" that will take over the country if he doesn't win a majority.
First of all, minority governments rule by coalition decision-making, by design. Nothing got passed in the last Parliament unless one of the opposition parties in the House of Commons supported the government on a vote. So vote by vote, informal coalitions were formed to ensure the work of the House resulted in legislation being approved. No, the coalition is not formal. But Canadians wanted to see the parties work together, by consensus, and come up with policies that reflect the compromise our nation is famous for abroad. But no, the Tories don't want compromise - it's not in their DNA. They'd rather rule by fiat. And so that's why the government eventually antagonized the House to the point of losing power on a vote that found them in contempt of Parliament.
(By the way, don't listen to any Tory who says the government fell on its budget. That is a bald-faced, 100%, backed-up-by-the-facts lie. There never was a vote on that budget, and anyone who insinuates otherwise cannot be trusted to tell the truth about anything else in this election.)
So now, Newfoundland. Harper went with a cheque in his hand to St. John's to tell the good people on the Rock that the feds would guarantee "a loan to finance $4.2 -billion of the $6.2-billion [Lower Churchill] project to run an underwater power line from Newfoundland to New England." The Tories did this in order to curry favour with voters on the island, who shut the party out in the 2008 election when then-NL Premier Danny Williams campaigned against them due to a squabble over equalization payments. This time, the Tories need those seats in pursuit of their elusive majority government.
Then Quebec started squawking. Premier Jean Charest condemned the promise, arguing the federal government has never intervened in the power market and should refrain from doing so in this case (lest it damage the profitability and prospects of Hydro-Quebec). All the parties in Quebec City united behind the premier, and Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe also fell in line. The united front from the nationalists and federalists in the province prompted Harper to promise resolution of an outstanding issue with Quebec over a financial settlement on the HST. The deal, which Quebec claims will cost the federal government $2.2 billion, has been unsuccessfully negotiated for the past 14 months, with no resolution possible until after the election ends.
Basically, the Tories are trying to buy off Newfoundlanders with the loan guarantee for Lower Churchill, and then decided they'd better try to buy off Quebeckers by extending the HST olive branch (though that issue was going to be decided eventually anyway).
Never mind that the Tories had the chance to set the money aside for the Quebec HST deal when they tabled their budget a couple weeks ago. This is an election, dammit, and they have to win!
Never mind that if they'd included the money in the budget, there's a chance the Bloc would have supported the document, and there wouldn't be an election going on right now at all.
Never mind that the Lower Churchill deal is being done in such a way to infuriate Quebec, which built its enviable infrastructure to transport energy to other jurisdictions without a cent of federal cash.
There's an election to be won, dammit!
None of this looks good for the Tories. It's only the end of the first week and already they're starting to look desperate outside their core constituency in Saskatchewan and Alberta. While the Newfoundland deal reaffirmed its commitment to the principles its base embraces, how is the hasty promise to Quebec to settle the HST issue playing in Calgary? As Harper tries to balance competing interests in different parts of the country while projecting an image of competent benevolent demagoguery, the chicken coop is slowly filling up.
As I said to friends before the campaign started, I never viewed Election 2011 as a slam dunk for Harper. I think the Tories are starting to realize they are in a real battle, and that perhaps they underestimated the competition. They are trying to stage manage a majority government, but the stage was never set the way they'd imagined it before the campaign started. They have looked static and reactionary, while the Liberals have been more flexible, more open, and far more united than first advertised.
The NDP is perceived to be struggling thus far, a situation that (on its face) benefits the Liberal Party. The more Jack Layton is sidelined, the greater the chance left-of-centre voters will hold their nose and vote Grit to stop Harper's drive for a majority. But this reality is fraught with danger for the opposition, for the NDP is better positioned in some places (such as parts of Atlantic Canada and in Saskatchewan) to defeat the Tories than the Liberals are. A collapse of NDP support on the prairies may make the majority Harper seeks more attainable.
All of this points to a campaign that is only now starting to capture the imaginations of Canadians. Over the next few weeks the seeds of trends that are trying to emerge now will shake themselves out. Not all of them point to a strong Tory government. The people running Harper's campaign should be very wary heading into Week 2. There are nascent signs that the electorate is more restless than they've banked on, with the possibility of a reduced minority becoming more real by the day, unless they respond. Are they paying attention? Are they listening? Can they sense the rumblings and react appropriately?
Sit back and watch. We're about to find out.
Then Quebec started squawking. Premier Jean Charest condemned the promise, arguing the federal government has never intervened in the power market and should refrain from doing so in this case (lest it damage the profitability and prospects of Hydro-Quebec). All the parties in Quebec City united behind the premier, and Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe also fell in line. The united front from the nationalists and federalists in the province prompted Harper to promise resolution of an outstanding issue with Quebec over a financial settlement on the HST. The deal, which Quebec claims will cost the federal government $2.2 billion, has been unsuccessfully negotiated for the past 14 months, with no resolution possible until after the election ends.
Basically, the Tories are trying to buy off Newfoundlanders with the loan guarantee for Lower Churchill, and then decided they'd better try to buy off Quebeckers by extending the HST olive branch (though that issue was going to be decided eventually anyway).
Never mind that the Tories had the chance to set the money aside for the Quebec HST deal when they tabled their budget a couple weeks ago. This is an election, dammit, and they have to win!
Never mind that if they'd included the money in the budget, there's a chance the Bloc would have supported the document, and there wouldn't be an election going on right now at all.
Never mind that the Lower Churchill deal is being done in such a way to infuriate Quebec, which built its enviable infrastructure to transport energy to other jurisdictions without a cent of federal cash.
There's an election to be won, dammit!
None of this looks good for the Tories. It's only the end of the first week and already they're starting to look desperate outside their core constituency in Saskatchewan and Alberta. While the Newfoundland deal reaffirmed its commitment to the principles its base embraces, how is the hasty promise to Quebec to settle the HST issue playing in Calgary? As Harper tries to balance competing interests in different parts of the country while projecting an image of competent benevolent demagoguery, the chicken coop is slowly filling up.
As I said to friends before the campaign started, I never viewed Election 2011 as a slam dunk for Harper. I think the Tories are starting to realize they are in a real battle, and that perhaps they underestimated the competition. They are trying to stage manage a majority government, but the stage was never set the way they'd imagined it before the campaign started. They have looked static and reactionary, while the Liberals have been more flexible, more open, and far more united than first advertised.
The NDP is perceived to be struggling thus far, a situation that (on its face) benefits the Liberal Party. The more Jack Layton is sidelined, the greater the chance left-of-centre voters will hold their nose and vote Grit to stop Harper's drive for a majority. But this reality is fraught with danger for the opposition, for the NDP is better positioned in some places (such as parts of Atlantic Canada and in Saskatchewan) to defeat the Tories than the Liberals are. A collapse of NDP support on the prairies may make the majority Harper seeks more attainable.
All of this points to a campaign that is only now starting to capture the imaginations of Canadians. Over the next few weeks the seeds of trends that are trying to emerge now will shake themselves out. Not all of them point to a strong Tory government. The people running Harper's campaign should be very wary heading into Week 2. There are nascent signs that the electorate is more restless than they've banked on, with the possibility of a reduced minority becoming more real by the day, unless they respond. Are they paying attention? Are they listening? Can they sense the rumblings and react appropriately?
Sit back and watch. We're about to find out.
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