Despite this reality, there are only two results actually possible on May 2, to my mind: a Tory majority or a Tory minority; however, there are several different ways the second situation might play itself out. Let's do a quick overview:
1. Conservative Majority
Stephen Harper's strategy of micro-campaigning is aided by the NDP surge in the final week of the campaign. Vote splits in Quebec City, southern Ontario, pockets of the Atlantic and in B.C. nearly all break his way, and the Tories eke out a majority victory. Harper's ultimate ambition is realized. Such a result is possible only if the Liberals lose a bunch of seats and the NDP is strong enough in Quebec to drop the Bloc back a few MPs as well. It matters little whether the Liberals, NDP or Bloc form the Official Opposition in this instance. This result leaves Canada with a conservative hue to its government that nearly two-thirds of it didn't want, and no way to change the situation for four years.
In terms of democracy, accountability and the desires of the Canadian people, this is the singular worst outcome -- a nightmare scenario for anyone who thinks Harper needs to be called on the carpet for previous behaviour.
2. Conservative Minority
Based on current polling trends, this seems to be the most likely outcome (though nothing is truly as it seems in this campaign). Under this scenario, the Conservatives will win anywhere between 135-154 seats on Monday. This is short of a majority but also a clear first-place finish. Such a scenario means the voting splits mentioned above didn't all break the Tories' way, meaning many or all of the following: NDP gains in Quebec and BC, a mix of Liberal holds and NDP pick-ups in Ontario, and a bit of seat-shifting in the Atlantic unfavourable to Harper's party.
The scenario is highly fluid, of course, but in all likelihood this result would mean the NDP has made significant increases in its seat total. As the Liberal vote collapsed in the past week, people moved in numbers to support the NDP. If this trend holds out on Election Day, Layton would become the Leader of the Opposition. It's tough to see a scenario where Michael Ignatieff retains the role, unless the masses of Quebeckers suddenly decided to go back to the Bloc -- an event I see as highly improbable. But it is possible. More on that later.
In a hung Parliament where no party commands a majority, the Tories would retain government and have the first opportunity to try to gain the confidence of the House of Commons. At that point, here's what could happen:
(a) The Tories are permitted to govern
I wrote about this in a previous blog post, before the NDP surge changed the calculus somewhat. This can still happen, and in fact I think is the most likely outcome with an NDP Opposition.
If Jack Layton leads the second party in the House, the Liberals wouldn't be keen to join with the NDP to govern, either on a case-by-case basis, in a negotiated arrangement or in a coalition. It would be like signing their own death warrant; such a move could be seen as a Grit invitation to the NDP to permanently replace them as the main alternative to the Tories. In all probability, the number of MPs in the Liberal and Tory caucuses would constitute a working majority. The Tories would amend their budgetary proposals and consult with the Grits to create a government agenda Ignatieff and the rest of his chastened crew could live with, thereby ensuring the NDP could not make a play for power.
The price of Tory compromise for the Liberals, however, would be exclusion from Cabinet. I believe the Tories would either seek to govern ad hoc (which I think the Liberals would reject out of hand), or offer to make the Throne Speech the blueprint of a joint Tory/Grit agenda, similar to the 1985-87 Ontario Liberal/NDP accord that brought David Peterson to power in Toronto, propped up by Bob Rae. Tories would do this, even if it gives the Liberals a bit of a lease on new life, in order to prevent the NDP from making their own arrangements to toss Harper out of power.
Where it becomes interesting is if either party demands the other partner dump their leader as part of the deal. Liberals would want assurances Harper would not be retained as Prime Minister, while the Tories may not want to sign an accord with the "just visiting" Ignatieff still at the Liberal helm.
I should also mention that the Bloc would probably also be able to combine their parliamentary votes with the Tories to keep them in power; however, given Gilles Duceppe's ongoing vilification by Harper as a traitor to Canada and Duceppe's bald disdain for Harper's autocratic tendencies, I see this as unlikely indeed.
I should also mention that the Bloc would probably also be able to combine their parliamentary votes with the Tories to keep them in power; however, given Gilles Duceppe's ongoing vilification by Harper as a traitor to Canada and Duceppe's bald disdain for Harper's autocratic tendencies, I see this as unlikely indeed.
(b) The Tories are brought down and the NDP is in position to govern
If the Tories refuse to compromise or cannot come to an agreement with the Liberals (or the Bloc) to remain in power, their government will fall as soon as Parliament convenes, likely on a confidence vote on their Throne Speech. Harper would then have to visit Governor General David Johnston at Rideau Hall and tender his resignation as Prime Minister. I believe he would also request new elections. This is where things get interesting.
It's doubtful the GG will simply hand the keys to 24 Sussex to Layton. Knowing there is no appetite for a new election, Johnston would seek to avoid one; however, he will want to know Layton can command the confidence of the House. If Layton were able to work out an agreement with the Liberals (in this case, I think a coalition in which the Grits hold some of the economic portfolios is the only way such a deal gets done), then the NDP could be offered the opportunity to do the unprecedented -- govern in Canada at the federal level.
(c) The Tories are brought down and the Liberals are in position to govern
Some Liberals insist the impending demise of the Liberal Party of Canada has been greatly exaggerated, and the multitude of Liberal voters who stayed home in 2008 will come out and come through for their party. I personally don't believe it, but I also didn't think Jack Layton could become Opposition Leader two weeks ago, either. So I don't discount it out of hand, as some other commentators have done.
If the Liberals are able to hold together and get enough of their supporters out to the ballot boxes on Monday, they could still finish ahead of the NDP in seat count (though they cannot catch the Tories in this respect) through favourable vote splits in parts of the Atlantic, the Montreal area, southern and eastern Ontario, and the Lower Mainland in B.C. The Bloc would also have to hold many of its most contested seats in Quebec to keep the NDP seat count lower that the Grits'. Should Ignatieff remain the Leader of the Opposition, defeating the Tories on their Throne Speech is pretty much the only way he can keep his job as head of the party.
Should the Tories fall under this scenario, the call from the GG would be placed to Ignatieff, and not to Layton. He would probably have to present evidence of NDP and Bloc willingness to permit him to govern, through either gaining a deal on a budget, through a longer-term accord, or through a coalition with the NDP. If Ignatieff were to approach Layton for support under these conditions, I don't see any way the Liberals avoid putting Dippers in Cabinet. The biggest knock against the NDP is their lack of governmental experience. You can bet they want to change that before the next time voters are asked to pass judgement on the members of the House of Commons.
(d) None of the above
However, if it all fell apart and a new election became the only option left, voters would blame the whole lot of them. The writs would be dropped, the politicians would hit the hustings again -- and all bets would be off.
If the Tories refuse to compromise or cannot come to an agreement with the Liberals (or the Bloc) to remain in power, their government will fall as soon as Parliament convenes, likely on a confidence vote on their Throne Speech. Harper would then have to visit Governor General David Johnston at Rideau Hall and tender his resignation as Prime Minister. I believe he would also request new elections. This is where things get interesting.
It's doubtful the GG will simply hand the keys to 24 Sussex to Layton. Knowing there is no appetite for a new election, Johnston would seek to avoid one; however, he will want to know Layton can command the confidence of the House. If Layton were able to work out an agreement with the Liberals (in this case, I think a coalition in which the Grits hold some of the economic portfolios is the only way such a deal gets done), then the NDP could be offered the opportunity to do the unprecedented -- govern in Canada at the federal level.
(c) The Tories are brought down and the Liberals are in position to govern
Some Liberals insist the impending demise of the Liberal Party of Canada has been greatly exaggerated, and the multitude of Liberal voters who stayed home in 2008 will come out and come through for their party. I personally don't believe it, but I also didn't think Jack Layton could become Opposition Leader two weeks ago, either. So I don't discount it out of hand, as some other commentators have done.
If the Liberals are able to hold together and get enough of their supporters out to the ballot boxes on Monday, they could still finish ahead of the NDP in seat count (though they cannot catch the Tories in this respect) through favourable vote splits in parts of the Atlantic, the Montreal area, southern and eastern Ontario, and the Lower Mainland in B.C. The Bloc would also have to hold many of its most contested seats in Quebec to keep the NDP seat count lower that the Grits'. Should Ignatieff remain the Leader of the Opposition, defeating the Tories on their Throne Speech is pretty much the only way he can keep his job as head of the party.
Should the Tories fall under this scenario, the call from the GG would be placed to Ignatieff, and not to Layton. He would probably have to present evidence of NDP and Bloc willingness to permit him to govern, through either gaining a deal on a budget, through a longer-term accord, or through a coalition with the NDP. If Ignatieff were to approach Layton for support under these conditions, I don't see any way the Liberals avoid putting Dippers in Cabinet. The biggest knock against the NDP is their lack of governmental experience. You can bet they want to change that before the next time voters are asked to pass judgement on the members of the House of Commons.
(d) None of the above
However, if it all fell apart and a new election became the only option left, voters would blame the whole lot of them. The writs would be dropped, the politicians would hit the hustings again -- and all bets would be off.
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