Or not.
Depending on factors that are beyond the ability of mere mortals to predict, we will either get a slim Conservative majority or the wildest, craziest election result the country has ever seen.
A quick recap:
- The "Seinfeld election" the Tories desperately wanted us to have died with the debates. Pundits will look back on this campaign and see that Layton landed punches in those events that resonated far beyond what was considered his base support. Everything changed from that point on, and the Liberals and Tories were slow to react. We'll see if they reacted well enough to dampen Dipper dreams.
- The Conservatives have campaigned on a "majority or bust" basis. For Stephen Harper, anything less than a majority is a loss. I think it's highly unlikely he keeps his job if the Tories are held to a minority. However, if he wins a majority, he gains the chance to solidify his gains over the next four years. I view this moment as a razor's edge point in our country's evolution. I hope voters pull us back from the brink.
- The Liberals under Michael Ignatieff are sliding further and further into irrelevance. While people have been talking incessantly about the NDP "orange crush" that started in Quebec and started affecting voting intentions elsewhere, less ink has been spilled about the fact the Grits have launched a similar red tide across the country. Starting with the sponsorship scandal, the Liberal Party has failed to reverse a spreading sentiment of discontent and disinterest in their policies and personnel. As much as the Dipper Wave is the main story of the past two weeks, the Descent Into The Red for Ignatieff's party (which is now taking hold across the country and was first triggered in Quebec) is a story for the historical ages.
- Gilles Duceppe has fought his last election campaign. The destruction of Election 2011 leaves him with no option but to resign, which will also kill any remnant hopes he may have had about eventually contesting the provincial PQ leadership. In the postmortem analysis of the BQ's electoral humiliation, the blame for this debacle will land squarely on his shoulders, no matter how many seats the party wins later tonight. The party itself no longer has a firm raison d'être nor a compelling case to make about its future relevance. Going forward, the Tories will absorb right-leaning voters, the NDP left-leaners, and the Liberals ... well, they'll have time to contemplate another butt-whupping dans la belle province. The BQ may remain, but only as a rump, unless they can find a purpose, and fast.
- Finally, the NDP gained the most of any party from a simmering discontent with politics as usual, the political mobilization of the youth vote, negative campaigning tactics that turned off many voters and a disintegration of the entente between soft nationalists and the sovereigntist Bloc. Whether this stunning turn of events translates into enough seats for Jack Layton to become Opposition Leader, or better, depends on fluid factors even Nostradamus would have trouble handicapping. All previous political assumptions are out the window. What lies ahead for all of us depends greatly on this party's final seat tally vis-à-vis the Conservatives.
Full disclosure: I have been fairly clear in my commentary during the campaign that I am anti-Harper and ambivalent towards Michael Ignatieff. I have always admired Jack Layton, and I campaigned on behalf of Alexa McDonough in Halifax during the 2005-06 campaign. I am not a card-carrying member of the NDP, though at points in my life I have carried a card both for that party and for the Liberals (when I was a university student at Queen's). My dislike of Ignatieff's party stems from my experience as a Young Liberal in the mid-1990s, when the pro-Martin forces were taking over the internal operations of the party in anticipation of their guy usurping Jean Chrétien in the PM's chair. I was disgusted by their methods and remain a conscientious objector to the way they do politics. I nevertheless campaigned for Peter Milliken, the former Speaker of the House of Commons, in his Kingston and the Islands riding during the 1997 and 2000 election campaigns. I have a great deal of respect for Peter, whom I consider a friend, and wish him all the best in his retirement.
I am not a disinterested commentator. I am not an NDP shill, but I also hew closest to their political philosophy and ideas. I believe all Canadians should express their personal political views as clearly and as loudly as they feel comfortable doing, and I certainly have chosen this blog to do that very thing. However, I believe strongly that all people should exercise their franchise in the way they believe is best.
I implore you to go to the polls and vote your conscience (whether that's in accordance with your personal views or a strategic ballot) before the ballot boxes are sealed today. Vote for whichever party you support, and be proud to register your opinion this way. And if you feel none of the above should get your vote, then go to your polling station and spoil your ballot. Don't take your rights for granted. Stand up and be counted.
Then go home to relax with family and friends, and take in the coverage that will be all over the airwaves tonight. May 2, 2011 will be a historic day. Participate in it.
- The Conservatives have campaigned on a "majority or bust" basis. For Stephen Harper, anything less than a majority is a loss. I think it's highly unlikely he keeps his job if the Tories are held to a minority. However, if he wins a majority, he gains the chance to solidify his gains over the next four years. I view this moment as a razor's edge point in our country's evolution. I hope voters pull us back from the brink.
- The Liberals under Michael Ignatieff are sliding further and further into irrelevance. While people have been talking incessantly about the NDP "orange crush" that started in Quebec and started affecting voting intentions elsewhere, less ink has been spilled about the fact the Grits have launched a similar red tide across the country. Starting with the sponsorship scandal, the Liberal Party has failed to reverse a spreading sentiment of discontent and disinterest in their policies and personnel. As much as the Dipper Wave is the main story of the past two weeks, the Descent Into The Red for Ignatieff's party (which is now taking hold across the country and was first triggered in Quebec) is a story for the historical ages.
- Gilles Duceppe has fought his last election campaign. The destruction of Election 2011 leaves him with no option but to resign, which will also kill any remnant hopes he may have had about eventually contesting the provincial PQ leadership. In the postmortem analysis of the BQ's electoral humiliation, the blame for this debacle will land squarely on his shoulders, no matter how many seats the party wins later tonight. The party itself no longer has a firm raison d'être nor a compelling case to make about its future relevance. Going forward, the Tories will absorb right-leaning voters, the NDP left-leaners, and the Liberals ... well, they'll have time to contemplate another butt-whupping dans la belle province. The BQ may remain, but only as a rump, unless they can find a purpose, and fast.
- Finally, the NDP gained the most of any party from a simmering discontent with politics as usual, the political mobilization of the youth vote, negative campaigning tactics that turned off many voters and a disintegration of the entente between soft nationalists and the sovereigntist Bloc. Whether this stunning turn of events translates into enough seats for Jack Layton to become Opposition Leader, or better, depends on fluid factors even Nostradamus would have trouble handicapping. All previous political assumptions are out the window. What lies ahead for all of us depends greatly on this party's final seat tally vis-à-vis the Conservatives.
Full disclosure: I have been fairly clear in my commentary during the campaign that I am anti-Harper and ambivalent towards Michael Ignatieff. I have always admired Jack Layton, and I campaigned on behalf of Alexa McDonough in Halifax during the 2005-06 campaign. I am not a card-carrying member of the NDP, though at points in my life I have carried a card both for that party and for the Liberals (when I was a university student at Queen's). My dislike of Ignatieff's party stems from my experience as a Young Liberal in the mid-1990s, when the pro-Martin forces were taking over the internal operations of the party in anticipation of their guy usurping Jean Chrétien in the PM's chair. I was disgusted by their methods and remain a conscientious objector to the way they do politics. I nevertheless campaigned for Peter Milliken, the former Speaker of the House of Commons, in his Kingston and the Islands riding during the 1997 and 2000 election campaigns. I have a great deal of respect for Peter, whom I consider a friend, and wish him all the best in his retirement.
I am not a disinterested commentator. I am not an NDP shill, but I also hew closest to their political philosophy and ideas. I believe all Canadians should express their personal political views as clearly and as loudly as they feel comfortable doing, and I certainly have chosen this blog to do that very thing. However, I believe strongly that all people should exercise their franchise in the way they believe is best.
I implore you to go to the polls and vote your conscience (whether that's in accordance with your personal views or a strategic ballot) before the ballot boxes are sealed today. Vote for whichever party you support, and be proud to register your opinion this way. And if you feel none of the above should get your vote, then go to your polling station and spoil your ballot. Don't take your rights for granted. Stand up and be counted.
Then go home to relax with family and friends, and take in the coverage that will be all over the airwaves tonight. May 2, 2011 will be a historic day. Participate in it.
No comments:
Post a Comment