Now that the voting is out of the way and Canadians have delivered a verdict that surprised even themselves, I see a few themes emerging in the coming days and weeks:
- The Liberal Party must go back to the drawing board and figure themselves out. Whatever they've been peddling since the retirement of Jean Chretien simply hasn't cut it, and with Michael Ignatieff's resignation, they enter yet another period of soul-searching. For their own sakes, they better actually do the hard work this time. Canadians don't feel like they owe Liberals anything. It appears as if that news was a shock to Canada's "natural governing party" but it's been that way for four elections now. It took a LONG time for the message to sink in. Perhaps being reduced to a rump presence in Parliament will finally do the trick! The lesson is clear -- if they want electoral success in the future, they're going to have to earn it.
- The Bloc Quebecois is finished. I've put forward practical reasons why a revival is unlikely, so it will now fall to the NDP to find a way to incorporate their voices into the traditional structure of their party. If there is a single organization that will have to adapt more adroitly to the new political reality than the New Democratic Party of Canada, I'd like to see it. And before you say the Liberals, consider this: the NDP beat their previous best of 43 seats in 1988 without factoring in their Quebec seats. With 44 seats in English Canada and 58 seats in Quebec, in a party that has never before elected more than one Quebec MP at a single go, working out the potential differences within the caucus will be Layton's most difficult managerial task.
- Now is not the time for the Conservatives to go rogue. For five years, Harper and his gang have run roughshod over their opponents, the rules and protocols of Parliament, and even the basic principles of democracy itself. Incredibly, and primarily due to the utter failure of the Liberals to propose anything of substance that Canadians would accept, they have been handed a majority mandate. They need to remember that even though our first-past-the-post voting system gave them a majority of seats, three-fifths of voters wanted someone else to govern. They should see this situation as both an opportunity and a very dangerous situation. If they blow it by going overboard, they will ruin their chances at governance for a generation. If they get it right, they can stay in government for a long, long time to come.
All parties need to take a few days to consider the implications of the vote on their political fortunes. Internal party officials will discuss next steps and the leaders will dole out Cabinet or critic roles as appropriate. New strategies will be created and implemented. Staff will be hired. Research will be conducted. And the Tories will craft a new Speech from the Throne to officially announce their agenda for the first parliamentary session featuring a Tory majority since Kim Campbell went to the polls in the summer of 1993.
Once the evaluation of their new situations is completed, the parties will have to spread their messages within the electorate. I believe the Tories will start to fight the next election right away. Their strategy will involve emphasizing the national nature of the party's representation as a launch pad to govern for all Canadians (or at least that's how the propaganda will go). Meanwhile, the Ontario gains and Quebec losses will become the focus, since it is only by retaining seats in the province that gave them their majority that they can rule in the long term. And part of that calculus involves dealing with Quebec well, and fairly.
They will get a bit of help in that respect from the NDP, since this will be a shared objective of the Official Opposition. As Jack Layton moves ahead, goal number one must be to get the greenhorns in his Quebec contingent up to speed and hard to work in their constituencies. The key to future success for the NDP will be how well they can serve locally and how well they can advocate in Ottawa for the province that put Layton in Stornoway. Beyond that, reconciliation of their French and English objectives will also be a critical task. Other parties in the past have imploded over such tensions, mostly on the right flank of Canadian politics (Social Credit in the 1960s and the Progressive Conservative Party in the 1990s are the two main examples). This particular accord is a completely new political arrangement in Canadian politics. How adroitly Layton navigates this potential minefield while attracting a broader following from progressives across Canada will dictate his chances of defeating Stephen Harper in 2015.
The Bloc may try to revive itself. It is tough to say exactly how they will do that, but I don't anticipate them disappearing immediately. Their most likely fate is a gradual fade into irrelevance. The only thing that can save them is an NDP failure to connect electoral success with strong representation of Quebec's interests in Ottawa. If the NDP is even at least partially successful, the future for the Bloc is bleak indeed.
The newest party to elect a representative is the Green Party of Canada. Elizabeth May invested the party's political future in winning her riding. Now that there is a majority Harper government, however, the main source of funding for her party is about to be cut off -- the per vote subsidies the Tories have vowed to end. And without a minority, her vote can never be the deciding factor in a vote, which also limits her potential impact. The key to future success for the Greens is in electoral reform, a cause that over time is increasing in popularity within the electorate; however, the real job will be to vastly increase individual donations and improve the party internally to prepare for 2015. Expanding on their electoral beachhead must be the focus for the next four years.
And finally, the Liberal Party of Canada needs to listen to Rob Silver. He and I are in agreement that the Liberals are not a left-wing party, and a merger with the NDP is nonsensical. I look forward to reading his perspectives on where he thinks the Liberals should go in the future. My thoughts are fairly straightforward: the Liberals have one chance left, only one more chance, to make themselves relevant to Canadian politics. Grit partisans need to forget about a focus on history. If they do that, they will be history. No, the path to revitalization is reinvention. Anything less than that is disaster. Liberals didn't lose in 2008 just because of Dion, they lost because the Tories have evolved with the times and changed their approaches accordingly, while the Liberals keep fighting the last war. They learned nothing from that historic debacle, and had to suffer an even greater humiliation to hopefully get the message. Another re-run of this mess and there will be nothing left.
Canada is tired of Liberal arrogance when it comes to holding power, and will never elect them again if that air of entitlement lingers a moment longer. The task is daunting, the need for leadership and determination acute. Who will lead this effort? Without the answer to this question, it's hard to see the road ahead at this stage. But that's the biggest concern for the party today. The search for the next leader should be a fascinating one.
We are in uncharted waters for all the parties. Watching it all unfold will be fascinating. But the party best able to execute their plans to achieve their most necessary goals will benefit most four years from now, when Canadians will next go to the polls to elect a government. The 41st Parliament promises to be one of the most intriguing in our history. Don't go back to sleep. Keep paying attention.
It's going to be one heck of a ride.
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