1. Leadership
Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe went down to defeat in his riding, along with nearly everyone else in his caucus. The disastrous BQ campaign can be attributed to a lack of energy, purpose and cohesion, and the person who has to take the lion's share of the blame is Duceppe. There was no way he could have remained as leader, even if he'd pulled out a win in his seat. The first Bloc MP ever elected to the House of Commons is done.
But the bigger reason why the BQ's future is so hampered by his loss is due to a lack of a clear successor. Duceppe has taken up so much of the party's oxygen over the years that there is no heir apparent to his deeply corroded crown. Plus, with the repudiation coming from all sides of their traditional support base (both nationalist and sovereigntist), they have virtually no policy room to argue for their continued existence.
The first crisis this party faces in the aftermath of their historic annihilation is their utter rudderlessness.
2. Loss of Official Party Status
In the Canadian Parliament, a party must win 12 seats in order to be officially recognized. With just four seats, the Bloc now falls short of this standard. It is a heavy blow for their party; without it, they do not have the right to participate in the House during Question Period, nor do they have access to funding for staff and research afforded only to officially recognized parties. This development will starve them of attention through QP and greatly limit their ability to efficiently gather resources to conduct House business. In short, they can't do much in the House of Commons as elected MPs.
3. Political Contributions Will Plummet
As a result of becoming a non-factor in the House, there is little incentive for Quebec business or individuals to contribute financially to the BQ's upkeep. They cannot claim to represent the province's interests in the House anymore -- not when the NDP owns more seats in Quebec than they ever did in their two decades of existence. All that money will divert from the Bloc and start to flow into NDP coffers, which should give them to opportunity to marshal resources into the province on a scale they could never reach previously. Since the NDP will want to be in Quebec for the long term, it's logical they will invest significant capital into building an efficient electoral machine in the province.
The research money the NDP will get is about to get a generous bump upwards as well, since such funding is doled out proportionally based on the size of a party's caucus. When the guys replacing you will have three times as much cash as they did before to do what you used to do, the writing's on the wall. And if you can't get your friends to give you the cash you need to fight back, the battle is a hopeless cause.
4. And the Coup de Grâce ...
Stephen Harper declared last night that his government would get back to work today. There are a number of items on his to-do list in the first 100 days, most notably his commitments to pass his budget and re-introduce his crime agenda in the Commons. But also high among his priorities is his determination to end per vote public subsidies for political parties.
The Conservatives have argued these subsidies artificially prop up the BQ and remove any urgency from its external fundraising efforts. So the removal of the subsidies will starve them of financing critical to any attempt at rebuilding the party.
In 2010, the Bloc raised $834,762 in direct donations from individuals, but collected $2.8 million in per vote subsidies.
I've already said their donation base is about to shrink dramatically.
You do the math.
Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe went down to defeat in his riding, along with nearly everyone else in his caucus. The disastrous BQ campaign can be attributed to a lack of energy, purpose and cohesion, and the person who has to take the lion's share of the blame is Duceppe. There was no way he could have remained as leader, even if he'd pulled out a win in his seat. The first Bloc MP ever elected to the House of Commons is done.
But the bigger reason why the BQ's future is so hampered by his loss is due to a lack of a clear successor. Duceppe has taken up so much of the party's oxygen over the years that there is no heir apparent to his deeply corroded crown. Plus, with the repudiation coming from all sides of their traditional support base (both nationalist and sovereigntist), they have virtually no policy room to argue for their continued existence.
The first crisis this party faces in the aftermath of their historic annihilation is their utter rudderlessness.
2. Loss of Official Party Status
In the Canadian Parliament, a party must win 12 seats in order to be officially recognized. With just four seats, the Bloc now falls short of this standard. It is a heavy blow for their party; without it, they do not have the right to participate in the House during Question Period, nor do they have access to funding for staff and research afforded only to officially recognized parties. This development will starve them of attention through QP and greatly limit their ability to efficiently gather resources to conduct House business. In short, they can't do much in the House of Commons as elected MPs.
3. Political Contributions Will Plummet
As a result of becoming a non-factor in the House, there is little incentive for Quebec business or individuals to contribute financially to the BQ's upkeep. They cannot claim to represent the province's interests in the House anymore -- not when the NDP owns more seats in Quebec than they ever did in their two decades of existence. All that money will divert from the Bloc and start to flow into NDP coffers, which should give them to opportunity to marshal resources into the province on a scale they could never reach previously. Since the NDP will want to be in Quebec for the long term, it's logical they will invest significant capital into building an efficient electoral machine in the province.
The research money the NDP will get is about to get a generous bump upwards as well, since such funding is doled out proportionally based on the size of a party's caucus. When the guys replacing you will have three times as much cash as they did before to do what you used to do, the writing's on the wall. And if you can't get your friends to give you the cash you need to fight back, the battle is a hopeless cause.
4. And the Coup de Grâce ...
Stephen Harper declared last night that his government would get back to work today. There are a number of items on his to-do list in the first 100 days, most notably his commitments to pass his budget and re-introduce his crime agenda in the Commons. But also high among his priorities is his determination to end per vote public subsidies for political parties.
The Conservatives have argued these subsidies artificially prop up the BQ and remove any urgency from its external fundraising efforts. So the removal of the subsidies will starve them of financing critical to any attempt at rebuilding the party.
In 2010, the Bloc raised $834,762 in direct donations from individuals, but collected $2.8 million in per vote subsidies.
I've already said their donation base is about to shrink dramatically.
You do the math.
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